N2K Presidential Race: Afghanistan Echoes on Campaign Trail

An economic recovery poses messaging problems for the Republican field. A gruesome massacre of children in Afghanistan by an American soldier presents more.

The to-the-ramparts stance that many Republican candidates have adopted this cycle doesn?t just ignore the isolationist strains within their own party--recall last year?s House vote rebuking President Obama over the mission in Libya, and the 87 House Republicans who backed Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich?s (!) measure forcing an end to U.S. military involvement there within 15 days.

The GOP's foreign-policy rhetoric and the Afghan unraveling have wedged the party into an unenviable political crouch.

Aside from the ghastliness itself of Sunday?s incident, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich must figure out how to finesse their own positions on Afghanistan: how to critique a president who is to the right of much of his own party and the nation as a whole.

Santorum?s remarks this morning on NBC?s Today underscored the difficulty of acquiring the required agility: ?We have to either make a decision to make a full commitment, which this president has not done, or we have to decide to get out and probably get out sooner.?

That?s a muddle wrapped in a quagmire.

-- Jim O?Sullivan

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NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRIMARY REPORT

Understanding Romney?s Base ?
[National Journal, 3/12/12] Romney represents suburban, white-collar voters focused on revitalizing the economy, not fighting the culture war. These voters are far less noisy and visible than the tea party faithful, but if Romney claims the nomination, it will be due to them.

No One Came To Mitt Romney's Twitter Birthday?Party NEW!
[BuzzFeed, 3/12/12] Romney turned 65 years old today, and his campaign wanted to hold a special Twitter celebration for their boss. The problem was that basically no one came. Over three days, there were only 19 tweets wishing the former Massachusetts governor a happy birthday (although the number is bigger if you perform a different search). Meanwhile, Romney asked voters in Alabama to give him a present in the form of delegates come Tuesday.

Tight GOP Primaries Suggest Unpredictable South
[New York Times, 3/11/12] National polling companies have found a volatile contest in Alabama and Mississippi, the two states to vote on Tuesday. The race is a near toss-up among the three leading GOP candidates, with the party's base voters in the Deep South not as predictable as they once were.

Poll: Obama Loses Ground to GOP Opponents ?
[National Journal, 3/12/12] Obama's approval ratings have slipped, and he no longer leads Romney in a general-election matchup, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released early today that also shows Americans are split on the president's economic policies.

As Rivals Divide, Romney Gains
[Wall Street Journal, 3/12/12] Days ahead of two crucial Southern races, Romney is finding himself within striking distance of improbable wins in Alabama and Mississippi, thanks to the divided loyalties of conservatives in the deep South. As long as both Gingrich and Santorum are in the race, neither can amass enough delegates to overtake Romney.

How Ron Paul Lost the Virgin Islands By Getting the Most Votes
[Slate, 3/11/12] How did Paul get 11 more popular votes than Romney but lose to him on delegates? The Virgin Islands doesn't portion out delegates by popular vote; instead, voters literally elect delegates: the six with the most support get to go to Tampa. Paul?s campaign blog tries to do even more spinning.

Strong Voter Turnout Expected in Alabama
[Montgomery Advertiser, 3/12/12] Alabama's chief election official is estimating that turnout for Tuesday's primary will be high due to the GOP presidential candidates? emphasis on the Heart of Dixie, but will fall short of the record set four years ago when Alabama had one of the best turnouts in the country.

Romney: We?re Closing the Deal ?State By State??
[National Journal, 3/12/12] Romney rejected criticism from rivals this morning on Fox News? Fox and Friends that he is a weak front-runner who is losing among the Republican Party's more conservative wing: ?We?re closing the deal--state by state, delegate by delegate.?

Gingrich, Perry Deny Report of Joint-Ticket Announcement
[National Journal, 3/11/12]. A report by Fox News just two days before crucial races in Mississippi and Alabama cited ?sources close to the Gingrich campaign? saying that a joint Gingrich-Rick Perry ticket might unite evangelical, tea party, and other conservative voters. But spokesmen from both campaigns have dismissed the speculation.

The Super-PAC Paradox
[Roll Call, 3/12/12] Federal Election Commission rules define ?improper coordination? between super PACs and the candidates they support so narrowly that political players would have to step far over the line to violate them. What?s striking about 2012 spending is not what?s illegal ? it?s what?s now permitted.

Foxworthy to Stump for Romney
[Mississippi Press, 3/11/12] The ?You might be a redneck? comedian endorsed Mitt Romney last week; today, he?ll be making the rounds in three Mississippi locations to help bolster the GOP front-runner ahead of Tuesday?s primary.

U.S. Should Reassess Afghan Policy, Santorum Says ?
[National Journal, 3/12/12] Santorum said on NBC?s Today that the U.S. needs to reassess its strategy in Afghanistan after this weekend?s massacre in which 16 Afghan civilians were killed; an American soldier is accused in the slayings.

Welcome to the Crawl Campaign
[Washington Post, 3/11/12] Chris Cillizza takes a look at the calendar for the next couple of months and concludes that Santorum looks strong for March and May, while Romney looks strong for April and June. It?s a campaign with no apparent end in sight.

Gingrich?s Provocative New Ad: Obama, Gas Prices, and the Saudis
[Los Angeles Times, 3/11/12] A new ad from the Gingrich camp has begun airing in Alabama that shows Obama bowing to Saudi King Abdullah, followed by an image of a white man with his hands up, as if being mugged at gunpoint, with the unseen assailant poking a gas pump in his back. ?Some might perceive [the ad] as playing into ethnic stereotypes,? the L.A. Times writes.

Santorum Bucks GOP Message on the Economy?
[Talking Points Memo, 3/11/12] Santorum deviated from the party line this weekend when he suggested that an improving economy could damage Republicans? chances in November, saying that the economy might not be a winning issue--or even the main issue during the election. Iran and national security could leap to the fore, he suggested.

Santorum Suggests Gingrich Isn't Authentically Southern
[Sun Herald, 3/11/12] Campaigning in Mississippi this weekend, Santorum said he was the most conservative candidate in the race and took a swipe at the former House speaker: ?The ?Southern? candidate, Newt Gingrich, was born in Pennsylvania,? said the former senator from Pennsylvania.

Candidates Struggle to Connect With Conservative Southern Voters
[Washington Post, 3/11/12] At rallies in Mississippi and Alabama over the past week, all three candidates awkwardly fished for something they might have in common with Southern audiences. Romney?s ?I like grits? moment speaks for itself, but even Gingrich and Santorum have struggled to bridge what voters perceive as a cultural disconnect.

Santorum Clings to Team of Pals?
[Politico, 3/12/12] Of all the candidates, none has kept his team of top strategists as insular as Santorum. But some strategists believe that if Santorum wants a fighting chance at becoming the GOP nominee, he urgently needs to assemble a more expansive, professional political operation.

For Ann Romney, Horses Are a Lifeline
[Washington Post, 3/11/12] Ever since her multiple sclerosis was diagnosed more than a decade ago, Ann Romney has turned to riding for therapy and relaxation. The Romneys declined to tally how much they spend on Ann?s love of dressage, a ritualized sport often referred to as ?horse ballet,? but the couple sinks tens of thousands of dollars into training and care of the animals.

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